What Are the Odds SAG-AFTRA Members Won't Ratify This Contract?
Members' AI worries have only mounted in recent weeks
With voting on SAG-AFTRA’s new TV/theatrical contract ending at 5 p.m. PT today, you might think that the guild’s 160,000 performers would be eager to wrap up their historic 118-day strike with a tidy vote.
But concerns over the new artificial intelligence provisions have been brewing ever since the guild declared the strike over on Nov. 8. SAG-AFTRA’s negotiating committee voted unanimously 17-0 on the package, touting its billion-dollar value that spans minimum-rate bumps, a new streaming bonus structure, increased pension and health plan caps and hair and makeup equity, among other items.
The 18-page summary document and informational sessions, however, were not enough to convince many members, who pushed for the guild to release the full 128-page memorandum of agreement; SAG finally released the document on Nov. 24.
“The contracts establish lengthy and detailed AI guardrails that didn’t exist before and do protect you as we meet the challenge of this new technology, hair and makeup equity, significantly increased background coverage, outsized streaming residuals, a new streaming success fund, and so much more,” read the guild’s memo to performers.
If you look on Instagram or X (the site formerly known as Twitter), you’ll see vocal dissent over AI in recent weeks, though it is unclear how many members have read the MOA in full and are responding to language in the document.
SAG-AFTRA chief negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland has previously told me that the new contract offers “assurance that your facial features aren't going to be incorporated into some, as some people would call it, like a Frankenstein output, without your consent.” (Listen to our podcasts with Crabtree-Ireland and union pres Fran Drescher, as well as with negotiating committee members Michelle Hurd and Kevin E. West, here or in the players below.)
Some AI critics, such as Justine Bateman, have taken the stance that AI should only be used when human performers would be put in harm’s way, though she has also said that she is “not advocating for people to vote one way or the other. I just think it’s inhuman and cruel to not tell people what they’re walking into, to not tell people where the loopholes are.”
Historically, how has membership voted? Let’s take a look at the last few SAG-AFTRA TV/theatrical contract cycles for context. In 2020 — a virtual negotiation, given the pandemic — members approved the contract with a 74.22 percent vote, with 27.15 percent of the membership sending in their ballots.
The 2017 TV/theatrical contract had a similar approval rate (75.79 percent) and turnout rate (24.21 percent). The 2014 deal garnered a heartier “yes” with 92.12 percent of the vote, albeit on a sliver of the total membership’s involvement, with a mere 7.88 percent voter turnout.
Despite the public debate about AI, the odds that the new contract will be ratified are probably still decent, given that a significant portion of the membership would have to vote against the deal to turn the results. What seems quite likely at this stage, however, is that whatever the final tally is, it’s unlikely to be as strong as the Writers Guild of America’s 99 percent ratification vote, in which 8,435 members approved the deal and only 90 members voted “no.”
Either way, we’ll know the results soon. After the voting period ends at 5 p.m., ballots will be tallied and results should be released by 6:30 p.m. or 7 p.m. PT, according to a SAG-AFTRA spokesperson.
Performers, how are you voting? Tell us in the comments below or email me at elaine@theankler.com.
Disclosure: Elaine Low is an inactive member of SAG-AFTRA.